The future of AI will be local. It will run on your phone and be smarter than you, and in fairly short order.
LLMs and the surrounding code that drives them (“harnesses”) are so far from AGI that it will be decades before we see your prediction come true. We need not just one, but many more leaps forward in AI progress to achieve a level of AI that is capable of performing human-level reasoning and planning that will be “smarter than you” or me. If you have studied AI in the pre-LLM times you will have an understanding of the problems that need to be solved for general reasoning intelligence. We haven’t solved any of those problems.
LLMs are a large step forward in the field of NLP, but that’s it.
I’m not here to argue that point. But my crappy NUC based LLM can answer the Beatles question. What it can’t answer is “what was the name of the guy who famously rolled his eyes while Yoko Ono screwed up his performance?” Right off the top of my head, neither can I. But OpenAI’s model would have no problem with that question.
So when I say “smarter than you or I” I don’t mean AGI and I’m not trying to get into an AGI conversation. I mean something that runs locally, doesn’t rely on the Internet and can answer almost any general trivia question accurately. And LLMs are already there, but not yet on your phone. When they are on your phone, people won’t need OpenAI or Sam Altman’s models anymore. That’s all I’m trying to say. I’m refuting Altman’s claim that we will pay for intelligence like a utility.
Yes, and I agreed with every word of your previous comment with the exception of
It will … be smarter than you
which I think is an extremely prevalent misconception about the state of AI that’s worth debunking every time it is mentioned, and this misconception is due to the exact same causes as the point of this post: The CEOs are misrepresenting what this technology will scale to, in order to extract the maximum investment from unsophisticated investors. In doing so they’re causing enormous turmoil in the labour markets that is affecting the lives of every white-collar worker.
Their narratives are harmful and they need to be called out.
I run a Qwen 3.8 27b at home on gaming hardware. Got it scraping and posting news articles and general stupid questions. Takes 5 minutes instead of seconds because it has a gemma model doing RAG in the back end.
Other than some coding, I really don’t have a reason to use a big model.
The greatest leap forward since the release of gpt3 and ChatGPT is the ability to look stuff up. Well that and tool use in general… Basically restricting internet access handicaps it real bad, especially with smaller models
Doesn’t detract much from your overall point but it’s important to keep in mind
LLMs will never be AGI or whatever we end up calling that next, but it will get more efficient at being what it is. I do fear for the future of the entertainment industry, but at least it won’t be too long before we can start building our own PCs again.
LLMs and the surrounding code that drives them (“harnesses”) are so far from AGI that it will be decades before we see your prediction come true. We need not just one, but many more leaps forward in AI progress to achieve a level of AI that is capable of performing human-level reasoning and planning that will be “smarter than you” or me. If you have studied AI in the pre-LLM times you will have an understanding of the problems that need to be solved for general reasoning intelligence. We haven’t solved any of those problems.
LLMs are a large step forward in the field of NLP, but that’s it.
I’m not here to argue that point. But my crappy NUC based LLM can answer the Beatles question. What it can’t answer is “what was the name of the guy who famously rolled his eyes while Yoko Ono screwed up his performance?” Right off the top of my head, neither can I. But OpenAI’s model would have no problem with that question.
So when I say “smarter than you or I” I don’t mean AGI and I’m not trying to get into an AGI conversation. I mean something that runs locally, doesn’t rely on the Internet and can answer almost any general trivia question accurately. And LLMs are already there, but not yet on your phone. When they are on your phone, people won’t need OpenAI or Sam Altman’s models anymore. That’s all I’m trying to say. I’m refuting Altman’s claim that we will pay for intelligence like a utility.
Yes, and I agreed with every word of your previous comment with the exception of
which I think is an extremely prevalent misconception about the state of AI that’s worth debunking every time it is mentioned, and this misconception is due to the exact same causes as the point of this post: The CEOs are misrepresenting what this technology will scale to, in order to extract the maximum investment from unsophisticated investors. In doing so they’re causing enormous turmoil in the labour markets that is affecting the lives of every white-collar worker.
Their narratives are harmful and they need to be called out.
I run a Qwen 3.8 27b at home on gaming hardware. Got it scraping and posting news articles and general stupid questions. Takes 5 minutes instead of seconds because it has a gemma model doing RAG in the back end.
Other than some coding, I really don’t have a reason to use a big model.
Uh about that not needing Internet part…
The greatest leap forward since the release of gpt3 and ChatGPT is the ability to look stuff up. Well that and tool use in general… Basically restricting internet access handicaps it real bad, especially with smaller models
Doesn’t detract much from your overall point but it’s important to keep in mind
LLMs will never be AGI or whatever we end up calling that next, but it will get more efficient at being what it is. I do fear for the future of the entertainment industry, but at least it won’t be too long before we can start building our own PCs again.